Thursday, January 26, 2012

Slavery led to Modern Capitalism - Interesting facts via Harvard & Brown Univ Research

Given below is an interesting perspective on an important link between slavery and growth of businesses in the US. Interestingly it also comes out that but for these the business may have grown but wouldn't have thrived & also that most respected and recognized Brands of today (Brown Univ to Berkshire Hathaway) have their root / history steeped in slavery....i wanted to shorten the text below but that would take away a lot of flavor and context...read on ...


Credits - This is from the research of Sven Beckert and Seth Rockman, historians at Harvard University and Brown University respectively & shared by Bloomberg ! 
When the New York City banker James Brown tallied his wealth in 1842, he had to look far below Wall st. to trace its origins. His investments in the American South exceeded $1.5 million, a quarter of which was directly bound up in the ownership of slave plantations.
Brown was among the world's most powerful dealers in raw cotton, and his family’s firm, Brown Brothers & Co., served as one of the most important sources of capital and foreign exchange to the US economy. Still, no small amount of his time was devoted to managing slaves from the study of his Leonard Street brownstone in Lower Manhattan.
Brown was hardly unusual among the capitalists of the North. Nicholas Biddle's United States Bank of Philadelphia funded banks in Mississippi to promote the expansion of plantation lands. Biddle recognized that slave-grown cotton was the only thing made in the U.S. that had the capacity to bring gold and silver into the vaults of the nation's banks. Likewise, the architects of New England's industrial revolution watched the price of cotton with rapt attention, for their textile mills would have been silent without the labor of slaves on distant plantations.
The story we tell about slavery is almost always regional, rather than national. We remember it as a cruel institution of the southern states that would later secede from the Union. Slavery, in this telling, appears limited in scope, an unfortunate detour on the nation's march to modernity, and certainly not the engine of American economic prosperity.
Yet to understand slavery's centrality to the rise of American capitalism, just consider the history of an antebellum Alabama dry-goods outfit called Lehman Brothers or a Rhode Island textile manufacturer that would become the antecedent firm of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Reparations lawsuits (since dismissed) generated evidence of slave insurance policies by Aetna and put Brown University and other elite educational institutions on notice that the slave-trade enterprises of their early benefactors were potential legal liabilities. Recent state and municipal disclosure ordinances have forced firms such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wachovia Corp. to confront unsettling ancestors on their corporate family trees.
Such revelations are hardly surprising in light of slavery’s role in spurring the nation’s economic development. America's "take-off" in the 19th century wasn't in spite of slavery; it was largely thanks to it. And recent research in economic history goes further: It highlights the role that commodified human beings played in the emergence of modern capitalism itself.
The U.S. won its independence from Britain just as it was becoming possible to imagine a liberal alternative to the mercantilist policies of the colonial era. Those best situated to take advantage of these new opportunities -- those who would soon be called "capitalists" -- rarely started from scratch, but instead drew on wealth generated earlier in the robust Atlantic economy of slaves, sugar and tobacco. Fathers who made their fortunes outfitting ships for distant voyages begat sons who built factories, chartered banks, incorporated canal and railroad enterprises, invested in govt securities, and speculated in new financial instruments.
This recognizably modern capitalist economy was no less reliant on slavery than the mercantilist economy of the preceding century. Rather, it offered a wider range of opportunities to profit from the remote labor of slaves, especially as cotton emerged as the indispensable commodity of the age of industry.
In the North, where slavery had been abolished and cotton failed to grow, the enterprising might transform slave-grown cotton into clothing; market other manufactured goods, such as hoes and hats, to plantation owners; or invest in securities tied to next year's crop prices in places such as Liverpool and Le Havre. This network linked Mississippi planters and Massachusetts manufacturers to the era's great financial firms: the Barings, Browns and Rothschilds.
A major financial crisis in 1837 revealed the interdependence of cotton planters, manufacturers and investors, and their collective dependence on the labor of slaves. Leveraged cotton -- pledged but not yet picked -- led overseers to whip their slaves to pick more, and prodded auctioneers to liquidate slave families to cover the debts of the overextended.
The plantation didn't just produce the commodities that fueled the broader economy, it also generated innovative business practices that would come to typify modern management.

As some of the most heavily capitalized enterprises in antebellum America, plantations offered early examples of time-motion studies and regimentation through clocks and bells. Seeking ever-greater efficiencies in cotton picking, slaveholders reorganized their fields, regimented the workday, and implemented a system of vertical reporting that made overseers into managers answerable to those above for the labor of those below.
 Property rights in human beings alThe perverse reality of a capitalized labor force led to new accounting methods that incorporated (human) property depreciation in the bottom line as slaves aged, as well as new actuarial techniques to indemnify slaveholders from loss or damage to the men and women they owned.so created a lengthy set of judicial opinions that would influence the broader sanctity of private property in U.S. law.
So important was slavery to the American economy that on the eve of the Civil War, many commentators predicted that the North would kill "its golden goose." That prediction didn't come to pass, and as a result, slavery's importance to American economic development has been obscured.
But as scholars delve deeper into corporate archives and think more critically about coerced labor and capitalism -- perhaps informed by the current scale of human trafficking -- the importance of slavery to American economic history will become inescapable.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Baltic Dry Freight Index - Confusing Signs but Grim Pointers , 3 year low


The Baltic Dry Index, fell to 974 (20th straight fall session) down 49% from its peak last year and slumping 43% in the last month only. 
This indicator is the daily average of prices to ship raw bulk materials and doesn't allow / build in any speculation, and coupled with Power & Coal rates , a far better indicator of the health of the world economy than Oil prices. Oil prices can easily be influenced by geo-political factors.
A scan on potential factors causing the fall, reveal an entire range of factors ...from economic at one end to supply side issues at the other. The following possible reasons emerge -
- Chinese demand for iron-ore cargoes is slowing - elevated inventories, reduced steel production & weakest expansion of economy in 2.5 years in the last quarter
-  Delayed infra projects & restricted finance ...China trying to slow the heat of the economy
- Sluggishness in view of approaching Chinese New Year holidays (Jan 22 – Jan 28 )
- Developed economies esp. Europe not growing - decline in imports, low demand for coal
- Worsening glut of vessels on faster deliveries of new ships.- Vessel delivery went up 12%   compared to 8 rise in Trade (Maersk)
- Weather / rain related disruptions of export shipments from Australia, Brazil (Iron Ore), Colombia and Indonesia (coal) 
Charter rates dropped for all four vessel types within the gauge, led by capesizes.
Capesizes – $7.793 a day, 76% down from last month’s high of $32,889 ( 40% of global fleet of commodity carriers ) Panamaxes - the largest ships to navigate the Panama Canal, dropped to a 33-mth low of $9,257. Supramax - fell to $9,695 a day, the lowest level since Feb. 6, 2009. Handysizes - the smallest ships in the index, retreated to $7,581.
Capesize rents on some routes fell below operating costs, estimated at $7,437 a day excluding fuel. The rate to hire a capesize for a round trip in the Pacific Ocean slid 9.2 percent to $5,336 a day, and the equivalent cost in the Atlantic declined 15 percent to $6,795.
Future Expectations - Growing ship supply, which is outpacing commodity demand, is set to cap dry bulk freight rate gains in the coming months, projected the BDI will remain "very low" at between 1,000 and 1,500 points for 2012. Next year will remain another challenging year for the industry
Flip side - "A decline in the BDI normally indicates a similar decrease in commodity prices. As a result, we should expect exporters to enjoy lower raw material costs, and should help the beleaguered industry.
Reliability - Recently its reliability has been called to question. When it surged to a record high in '08 the S&P 500 actually began to decline about six months before the BDI, making it a lagging indicator of the stock market. It did, however, signal that the global economy was in deep trouble as it tanked 94 per cent in 2008. The BDI also rebounded slightly before the stock market rising nearly 250 per cent before stocks finally bottomed out on March 9, 2009. 
Since then, though, the BDI has meandered at levels about 80 per cent below its pre-crisis peak, providing few glimpses into the state of the economy. One theory is that shipping prices are suffering not through a lack of trade, but through a glut of large ships. 
In other words, the Baltic Dry Index is flashing red – but no one really knows what that means, and fewer people seem to care.
Maybe our troubles are so big that this is one indicator we know will flash red while we focus on the fiscal health of Europe , Chinese slow down, worry wether US is recovering and the budgets wouldn't be struck in the congress or where is the next Friday , the 13th Downgrade coming and hitting...our plates are indeed quite FULL !!!! 


Credits - various sources chiefly Economic times, Reuters, Bangkok Post, The Business Times, The Globe & Mail, Canada, Graph Credits - BIG 

Saturday, January 7, 2012

The Economics of Oil and the Strait of Hormuz !!


Regrets being off for a long time and am back to writing the blogs again ....

A quick note on a developing situation which could be the next Economic threat - The Strait Of Hormuz

The importance of the Strait is that its the lifeline of Seaborne oil trade with 35% shipments and 20% of the total traded oil going through it. The economies of large oil producing countries of the region depend on it for their livelihood.

If the strait gets blocked for some reason, it will have large implications on the price of oil and related effect on the world economy still under heavy stress in most regions.

The apparent back ground is the power equation between Israel & Iran....one a small but technologically advanced country and another a large oil player now at crossroads with US and some European powers.

At this point shadow boxing is going on between the US and Iran ....and any grave provocation can ignite it.
US has put effective sanctions against Iran , choking it and Iran has threatened to block the strait to retaliate. If not our oil , then no one ships oil. If it does, it will mean a certain retaliation from the US making it  messy with firing on/from all sides as Iran will involve Israel into the picture and that can be bad for everyone.

Minor achievements like downing of a top end US drone by Iran may have given them some bragging points but then how were they able to achieve it...possibly with some outside help of an interested country ...that must be giving them some sense of security and backing when under fire ....so there must be some other players coaching the unseeded Shadow boxer ..;))

Looks like people are waiting for Iran to fire the first shot and then blame it but the rescue of an Iranian Naval boat and its kidnapped crew may provide some elbow room for diplomacy...looks far fetched.

Though diplomacy should be the key to engage but then for some strategic reasons that isnt being deployed as yet ..hope its put to good use.


If the stand off erupts, Long Oil & Gold will be a great no brainer short term trade !