How to profit from the Kingfisher Misery & general Airline malaise

Scenario : 
Kingfisher is down cancelling flights,on verge of a massive break down
Spicejet in caught in the Amma web for now , assured sarkari business wont come
Air India (IA) - is tardy and getting tardier with striking pilots etc

what i have listed above is > 51% dom mkt share

who will gain.....Its almost no brainer - Jet Airlines , proven n efficient

Pitfall ....Jet has a very high debt ~ 14K Crores

Indigo & Go will gain too ....but they are small airlines and Jet certainly has an edge

The call is risky , but worth a try

Caution & Caveat :
BET = Banta Eco Times, so take this advice with a pinch of salt !!! and two bottles of Vodka ; D))) , when the hangover is over don't forget to consult your financial advisors

Dear Mr. Mukherjee: A Shout-Out for India Budget 2010

Please find below a very good write up on our budget ........

Dear Mr. Mukherjee: A Shout-Out for India Budget 2010 by Paul Beckett

Respected Sir:I haven't had much time to digest your speech but I think you did a good job in both the tone and the substance.

Well done updating the Gandhi you invoked for your compliments to Sonia from Indira (can't hurt when you next say "Ciao" to you know who either, eh?)

And well done putting some specifics out there on how you see the budget deficit declining in the next three years.

We were looking for that, what with the Fiasco in Fetaland, and you delivered some credible targets. It won't surprise you to know we will wait to see your numbers achieved before popping the expensive bubbly but we'll definitely chill the cheap stuff. This is very welcome news for Indian and global investors concerned about which way the deficit has been going recently.

Focusing on trimming individual tax rates to continue the consumption boom was politically clever. It also should give you some cover for that other necessary step which, no doubt, you heard some grumbling about at party headquarters: raising the excise duty and hiking petrol prices.

With summer coming on, I might mutter something unpleasant about you under my breath when I hand over a few more bills for a new air conditioner. But I won't really mean it. And you needed no greater example of the merit of your petrol price hike than the bizarre behavior of your friends across the aisle.

Jumping up and shouting at you before walking out doesn't exactly portray them as a credible alternative government, does it? Let me rephrase that: portrays them as an even more incredible alternative to government. Nice invocation of your constitutional requirement to keep going with the speech, by the way.

"The opposition walking out over the fuel hike was embarrassing," Pramod Bhasin, chief executive of Genpact told me when I asked him his reaction to your speech. Even though you didn't extend his industry's tax holiday, Pramod still liked what he heard overall, too. "It was an excellent budget," he said. "They are finally trying to tackle the fiscal deficit.

"I did want to ask what the deal is with punting your game plan on the overall national debt out another six months, when you're going to produce a report. Did I hear that right? I hope that deadline doesn't slip or that it is not a way for you to dodge a tricky issue when you have the nation's attention. Given the rest of what you said on debt, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now.

A year's delay for the Goods and Services Tax also is a bit of a shame. And I must have been distracted when you mentioned the timeline for further liberalizations in insurance, the media and retail, as well as an ambitious plan of public divestitures. You did lay those out, right?

Right?
Oh.

Anyway, that doesn't detract (too much) from your creditable performance. It was good to see that funds for your Mahatma Gandhi Busywork program didn't increase by 144% again, even if they did rise a bit. And it looked like you have shifted your focus somewhat to programs that actually encourage responsible behavior and give people some tools to make their own progress in life.

An expansion of the national pension program to workers in the unorganized sector with a little nest padding from the central government is a good long term step. As is expanding the number of financial institutions and pushing their reach into the furthest corners of rural India. Giving farmers better access to affordable credit is a much better idea than forgiving them loans.

I know you're busy with all those pesky reporters who now want you to talk more when you must already be talked out, so I'll wrap up. I think the stock market's bullish reaction pretty much sums it up, especially on a day when GDP growth came in lower than people were expecting. Your speech seems to have trumped that statistic, which is no mean feat.

In closing, I wanted to make sure you saw a GDP note from Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC. One of the reasons that he says the number was underwhelming was because of a reduction in government spending in the last three months of last year. He says it fell 10.3% year-on-year, having been up nearly 27% July to September. That may have brought down the big number to 6% but it's good to see that the belt tightening already had begun well before you stood before Parliament. Gives us confidence that what you said this morning you really meant.

Sincerely,
Paul Beckett .....He is the WSJ's South Asia bureau chief, based in New Delhi

Value Investing at its very best - Purchase of Burlinton National by Berkshire Hathway

Warren Buffet, the Guru has done it again. This time round its increasing his stake in the Railways.

He took a stake earlier (22%) and now completely bought over Burlington Northern Santa Fe, the second-largest railroad company in US for $34 Billion @ $100 per share, at 30% premium on Monday’s closing price.

He bet on the future of Railways earlier when he took stake in Burlington – 22%, Union Pacific 2%, Norfolk Southern – less than 1%. Now with the biggest ever purchase by Berkshire Hathaway, he has gone the whole hog. ( Before this, the biggest acquisition was the $16 billion purchase of General Re in 1998).

Salient Features of the investment -
# It’s a major wager on the health, strength and future of the US economy.
# It’s a stake in the industry which hauls everything big & small, commodities to consumer products to heavy machines. Growth will mean more haulage both for export of crop produce, imports from all over, Coal for energy etc.
# The railways make economic sense and thus are being increasingly preferred, as the prices of oil remain firm given its limited availability. To put into context , one train roughly hauls 280 odd trucks.
# Captive consumption – Berkshire already owns major utilities which rely on coal.
# Moat – After consolidation the current rail road industry in US is a virtual monopoly with major deterrents for new entrants, so a perfect Buffet moat.
# Proxy investment into Coal & energy - Rather than buying expensive coal mines, he bought into the Coal logistics as the Coal fired plants grow so will the use of railroad for its supplies. Nine new plants have been approved & 25 are under const. for a total 15,000 MW.

# Why Burlington – Another Buffet principal , always go for companies having strong managements. It has a strong management team which deployed technology, consistently improved efficiency and cut costs to make it more profitable.

# Timing and Price - The investment was made at almost the bottom when the company reported much lower volumes consequent 30% drop in profits. The things are not going to get any worse.

Summing up, current fundamentals may look weak and shares fully priced but when one peeps into the future both near & distant, this will turn out to be one great investment.

An Ode to the Wizards & the Change Agents

Man's destiny is written by God almighty while his earthly existence and behaviour is shaped by numerous influences which the people and environment bring on to him.

It would be appropriate to start with a note (a bit longish , pls bear) acknowledging my debt to God and to the individuals who helped shape my investment thought, professional behaviour, the individual I am and touched me in many, many ways unsaid.

God - Thank you for a great life , career, family , friends , mentors, peers and opportunities ....opening two doors for evey single one closed.

Investment Gurus

Dr Chopra - my investing journey began with him... i used to go to him to clear my chemistry doubts while in school and would find him surrounded with financial newspapers & journals. On questioning him about their purpose, he would give me a sympathetic look which you reserve for a "Bacha" (small kid) asking too much. But when on the good days he would decide to explain, he would do so for not less than hour or two and thus sowed the seeds of my financial independence.

S S Grewal - I was introduced to him through his book gifted to me by Dr. Chopra, through his newspaper columns and later had the fortune of personally knowing him.

Mr Lamba - My uncle & my friend, who would guide me with his knowledge. He made me join an investment club of which I was the youngest member and would get weird stares - loudly saying that ...what is this kid doing here ???

Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, Philip Fisher - Early on in my career I faced a huge personal challenge.....I mitigated my pain, as I lived my life one day at a time, by reading whatever I could on these greats - knowing that this knowledge would be my wet blanket in future.

Ramesh Damani - It was his guidance that gave me both the foresight and courage to quit Ranbaxy & take up investing as a full time career and activity.

Gundeep Gill - a great friend , who has been an excellent support throughout.

Professional Rain makers

Ranbaxy - A great company which gave me a career spanning the globe across two decades, run by great set of people who supported me and made me challenge all known human barriers.

Malavinder - It was great working with him up close .... I thank him for a lot of things , especially the support in some of the professionally trying moments ...his thinking off his feet and handling of the press was amazing.

Rahul Goswami - I started work in Ranbaxy with him & was one big influence both with his intellect and calm. A true mentor in every sense.

Omesh Sethi - the gentle giant - polite but very firm. No chess with anyone....very few of his ilk in our profession now.... great knowing and working with him.

Manish Dawar - An old friend & guide ...I owe my CA to him...very reserved in public but we would talk endlessly for hours (frustrating even the extremely patient Aunty ji - his mother). When I shared my idea of leaving Ranbaxy and moving full time into equities with him.... he wanted me to seal it there and then.

Yogesh Sareen - a great intellectual & a friend from back home ....has always been there for me. We unwind on evening walks even now and he will take care my childern's education if my venture fails .. !!

Rajendra Sinh - He hired me in Ranbaxy and has been a great influence since. He supportted me big time throughout our journey together and much after that...no words

KL Khurana - The Boss, who was miles ahead of the rest ....with his financial insight, hardwork, knowledge, personal conduct.

Ig Viljoen (I-kh Phil-yoon) - The Afrikan who taught me to balance my work ,family & religion. Interestingly i discovered my religion via South Africa. Very knowledgable and straight forward...once convinced of the person would go the whole hog for him... gave careers to lot of people working with him , he supported me a lot when others were creating nonsense ...wish he had continued more with Ranbaxy, life would have been very different ..i owe a lot to him.

Debashis Dasgupta - He is a wonderful person , thorougly professional and conducts himself with elan. Its a tribute to his skills that he has graduated from Finance into business and currently heads Europe for Ranbaxy.

Satish Chawla - He taught me Gita - that helped me work without looking for trivial goals of the material world.

Tavinder Vasudeva - we worked together for more than 6 years in different regions and shared many great successes together.

Naveen Sharma - Has been a great friend and we have been together in thick and thin of life. Bowls perfect " Ghees " ...you may be the best cricket player in the world but try giving him 3 inches below the bat ....out go the stumps !!! ....

Atul Sobti, Ram Ramasundar, Davinder Jaaj, Pushpinder Bindra, Vinay Kaul, Surjeet, Naresh, Pawanpreet, Manoj Fake, Biplab Sen, Chauhan, Sudhir Vaid, Alan Thompson, BK Raizada, Vijay Kumar, Sanjiv Kaul, R. Sundarajan, Sanjiv Chopra, Brian Tempest, Peter Burema, Anjuna Kalsi, KK Puri , Shankar Narayanan , Ranjan Chakravarthy, JF Picard, Ganesh, Maninder, Strauss, Mihir Chayya , Jaideep, Aman khanna, Sandeep Juneja, Rajbeer Sachdeva, Anil Gupta, Ranjit Kohli, Rajesh, Deepak, Krishna, Surbhi, Late Shina Lawal & Late Tapan Datta were others who i had the fortune of working closely with.

The Family

My Parents - They have been the nicest pair i have come across .... who whole heartedly supported the extended family of their brothers and sisters , even cousins despite their modest means and then took all the muck the world (read these same so called relatives) could throw without a grudge and provided a living example to us beyond compare.

Elder Bro Upkar - He was always there for me , is extremely intelligent and well rounded individual - did my summer holiday homework , protected me against bullies, taught me cricket, answered my questions through detailed letters from NDA and what not. He let go what could have been a great career in industry for his passion - the armed forces. He is a fighter pilot and a great asset to the Air force.

Keena (Wife) - Her unflinching support at all times has been great ....tagged with me where ever i went ...truly like the nomads pitching tent where the night fell ... i would be in office and she would have settled in any new place with no questions asked !!

Mansha (D) - An amazing kid, she has travelled through the world with us , spoke standard Chinese as a kid and doing well in whatever she puts her mind to ....from studies to school band......can beat the whole world if she decides to !!

Manan (S) - Practical , techincal & logical kid , can remember as many mobile nos as needs to needle his friends dad's for favourable negotiations. I missed most of his childhood ....saw him first when he was 2 months + as didnt get leave, would ask me if i still have to go back to office if i were to return at 8.30 pm ......I am trying to make up for the lost time ...hope i can ...!!!!

Friends - all left a piece of them in me !!

GNPS - Prince Harpreet Singh, Ajay, Budhiraja, Cuckuria, Baggi, Jassa - Talo Patalo, Amanpreet Kang, Harkirat, Iraqi Sardar ...name?? & some names i am forgetting

GMHS 35 - Yati, Vivek, Haru, Late Jassa, Tarun, Chandana, Amrika, Jaagi, Mandhir, Mukesh, Harpreet Banga, Gurkamal Bedi, Ravinder Pal , Seema Kohli, Sonia, Neeta , Sukhpreet, Jayanti, Ishpal, Vinni, Manpreet, Sarabjeet X2, Kuldip, Satinder, Rajinder, Guri, Harpreet K, Late Navneet Matharu, Bharat Bhushan, Chandrashekhar, Mini, Ritu, Sanjay Mago, Pawan Lamba + +

Others - Sandeep Grover, Navi Grewal, Jyoti, Pawan Tur, Manas, Raju Lamba, Sumant Batra, Alok Mehta, Varun Khurana, Tina, Anil, Amry, Romy, Bobby, Bholu, Tinku , Tony Singh IPS , Sanjay Pathak, Binu, Bhapa and many others

SD College - Rachna, Naveen, Vivek, Sandeep, Ajay, Kalra, Jolly, Khanna and many others

CA - Sandeep, Vikas, Neelkant, Shiraz Khanna, Vineet & Simrat Khurana, Late Hardeep, Inderpal, Mr Mittal Vineet, Late Bikramjit, Rocky and numerous others

Paonta Sahib - Bawejas, Landlords - SDM Paonta, Choudarys - Sr & Doc, Excise Supdtt - Trikha & The dy. Surdee, Uniyal, Arvind, Bahuguna, Dalal,

China - Naresh Sharma, Sofia and others

Nigeria / Africa - Nico & Anita Van Der Merwe, PGR Prasad, Satish Kyshap, Madanjits, Gejjis, Hari, Santharam, Hemant sharma, Hemant arora, Hanwant Arora, Patel, Gagan, Murli, Strauss, Cameroon, Adesanya, Adenji, David, Sam, Niya, Kufre, Dan Akujobi, Aniyasu, Idowu, Sunday, Charles, Ameth Diagne, Jaideep rai singh, Aman khanna, Sandeep Juneja, Inderjeet, Navdeep sodhi, Path group and others

UK - Sameer Trivedi, Hentric

Russia & CIS - Raghu, Chou, Kishore Budhgavi, Sorabjees, Shanker, Jeetu, Ramesh Chandra,AVM Chauhan, Cmde Jamwal, Gen Chabewal, Brig Paramjit, Shiv Kumar x2, Shekhar,Sandeep Nasa, Rajesh Sondhi, Surjit Singh, Sujeet Singh, Manish Kumar, AVM P Singh, AM Bangu, Satya, Mr Sethi, Mr Gupta, Mohan, Lalit, Surendra, Arvind, Shinu, Shalu, Katya, Elena X 2 ,Valery, Bawa, Pratap, Pawan, Dimitry Kuksin, Amrendra, Rao, Alok Batra, Yogish Agarwal, Devendra Saini, Chanchal Lahri and many others

Ludhiana - Jawahar Lal Oswal, Faqir Chand

Nirvana Roadies - Amren & Neeta, Thanwanis, Sunderlals, Bakshis, Guptas, Manish, Bhardwajs, Goyals, Banerjees

Pace Financial - Amit & Atul Goel, Great set of guys , very well grounded, Pushkan & Abhishek

Entry India - Rajesh Mehta - a very nice person and a close friend, Abhishek Nahata, Karan Trehan

my regret is that I wanted to write a few lines about everyone, but had to list only in my attempt to limit the size of the blog...please excuse !!

And in addition i missed many others especially my teachers & professors , close friends in school , college & CA and others who I may have missed listing here ....but they are there always for me and I would try to cover their contributions & anecdotes on the time spent together in subsequent blog posts.